FIRE calculator: check financial independence with Monte Carlo
Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) planning usually comes down to two questions: **Will my portfolio last?** and **How much can I spend?** Rules of thumb help, but markets are not average — sequence of returns matters.
Why FIRE planners use simulations
Spreadsheet averages assume smooth returns. Monte Carlo runs many possible market paths so you see a **range** of outcomes: median portfolio at retirement, odds of success, and worst-case decades.
Quala's free retirement calculator gives a fast snapshot: growth to retirement with a simple equity proxy, then a stress-tested decumulation phase.
Steps to run your own FIRE check
- Estimate current investable assets and years until you stop full-time work.
- Set a spending target in today's dollars (many FIRE households use 25–33× annual spend as a starting portfolio target).
- Run a Monte Carlo tool and note **success rate**, not just median wealth.
- If success is below your comfort band (often 85–95% for long retirements), model lower spend, later retirement, or higher savings.
Common mistakes
- Ignoring taxes and Medicare/IRMAA on MAGI in high-spending years.
- Using one static return instead of volatility.
- Forgetting one-time spends (home, education, healthcare gaps).
Go deeper with Quala
Save real holdings, monthly savings, spending, and tax-aware life scenarios in the full app — then compare growth and retirement portfolios side by side.